Why Betting on Football is so Unpredictable?


What I know for a while is that it is complicated to play football. You may have already lived by making your football bets. There is an explanation, and I will give it to you today. The figures I am going to provide you with today come from a study that was carried out already. They interviewed economists and mathematicians. Some exciting things will explain to you quite easily why betting on football is so complicated and why winning bets on football is so complicated even if you’re on free bets.

The Point System Makes Reversal of Situations More Frequent

  • In football, the favorite wins only once in two halves.
  • In MLB, American baseball is three times out of 5.
  • And for the NBA it’s two times out of 3.

In your opinion, why are there such gaps between these sports? There is a simple reason. It’s at the level of goals and points that we can score.

  • In football, can you score up to 3 goals? That may be a little more, but it is scarce.
  • In baseball, you can score up to 15 runs. This is something you will very rarely see in football, not even in betting offers.
  • And in the NBA, you can score 100 points, 120, 130 points, for each team. It is not rare.

Everything starts from there. In football, it is difficult to have big scores. This can bring surprises, hence the fact that the favorite usually wins only once in two halves. It’s a fundamental fact.

I have a question for you. In your opinion, what is the most popular score in football? It’s just 1-0. That’s 17% of football results. 17% is pretty massive. You see that a 1-0, it can very well end in 0-0 or 1-0 in the other direction. We’re going to gravitate around that, which does not leave huge gaps like the NBA where you can have 100 to 80, things like that.

Does this Unpredictability Change?

There is one thing that could change football; it is if we changed the rules. If for example offside was removed. There would be more goals in football so necessarily favorites would win more often than half, only 50% of the time. It would be more predictable, more comfortable to bet on the favorite.

By cons, it would kill the beautiful adventures that can be with small teams. Like Leicester, who won at 5000 against 1 the English premier league a few years ago, the year before, they were almost relegated, hence the coast of 5000 against 1. It makes beautiful stories.